How AI Is Making RAM and Laptops More Expensive
AI is quietly reshaping the global memory market, and the consequences are showing up on price tags at retailers across South Africa. The surge in AI infrastructure build-out is consuming a disproportionate share of the world's memory chip production capacity, leaving less supply for the consumer DRAM that goes into everyday laptops and desktop PCs.
By the end of this article, you will understand the exact mechanism driving RAM prices upward, how it translates to higher laptop costs locally, and what you can practically do about it whether you are buying, selling, or simply trying to time your next hardware decision.
Note for South Africa:
- South African consumers face a double cost pressure: global DRAM price increases and rand depreciation against the US dollar. These are two separate drivers that compound each other.
- Most laptops and RAM modules imported into South Africa attract 0% customs duty but are subject to 15% VAT at the point of import and sale, per the SARS customs tariff schedule. Currency of invoicing is typically USD, so every rand move matters.
- The used and refurbished PC market locally may offer meaningful value against inflated new hardware costs. Platforms like Sell Your PC's shop list pre-owned machines at prices not tied to new AI PC specifications.
At a glance:
- AI accelerators like the Nvidia H100 and H200 use High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which is extremely wafer-intensive to produce and diverts capacity away from consumer DDR RAM.
- Only three manufacturers make HBM: SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. This concentration creates a tight supply bottleneck.
- Microsoft's Copilot Plus PC standard now requires a minimum of 16GB RAM, effectively raising the hardware floor for mainstream laptops.
- New fab capacity takes two to three years to come online, so near-term price relief is unlikely.
- South African buyers carry an additional currency risk on top of global supply pressures.
Key takeaways:
- AI RAM shortages are structural, not a short-term blip. Plan accordingly.
- Selling a RAM-heavy machine now may yield better returns than waiting.
- Buying used or refurbished hardware is a practical hedge against inflated new laptop prices.
Why RAM Prices Are Rising Again (And It Is Not What You Think)
Most people assume RAM price cycles follow a familiar boom-and-bust pattern driven by oversupply and inventory corrections. That has historically been true. But the current upswing has a different engine driving it, and that engine is not slowing down.
The rapid scaling of AI data centres globally has created an enormous and sustained demand for a specialised type of memory called High Bandwidth Memory. This demand is pulling wafer production capacity away from the consumer DRAM that fills laptops and desktop PCs. The result is a tighter supply of standard memory modules even before consumer demand enters the equation.
The Role of AI Infrastructure in Global Memory Demand
AI accelerators, the chips that power large language models and machine learning workloads, require enormous amounts of fast, high-bandwidth memory to function. The leading chips in this space, including Nvidia's H100 and H200 GPUs, use HBM rather than standard DDR memory. According to reporting by Tom's Hardware on HBM demand diverting DRAM capacity, the production of HBM consumes significantly more wafer area per gigabyte than standard DRAM. That means every HBM chip produced takes proportionally more fab resources away from consumer memory production.
SK Hynix, which is Nvidia's primary HBM supplier, posted record profits on the back of this demand, as reported by Reuters covering SK Hynix's AI memory demand surge. The financial incentive is clear: HBM commands significantly higher margins than standard DDR4 or DDR5. Manufacturers are rational actors and they will prioritise the more profitable product.
HBM, DDR5 and DRAM – What AI Actually Needs From the Memory Market
Understanding the distinction between HBM and standard consumer DRAM helps explain why the supply problem is structural rather than temporary.
| Memory Type | Primary Use | Who Makes It | Impact on Consumer Supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| HBM (HBM3, HBM3E) | AI accelerators, high-performance GPUs | SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron only | Directly competes for wafer capacity with DDR production |
| DDR5 | Consumer laptops, desktops, workstations | Multiple manufacturers | Supply being squeezed by HBM fab diversion |
| DDR4 | Older consumer devices, budget segments | Multiple manufacturers | Capacity deprioritised as industry moves to DDR5 |
How HBM Production Crowds Out Consumer DRAM Supply
HBM uses a manufacturing process called 3D stacking with through-silicon vias. It is fundamentally more complex and wafer-intensive than producing flat DDR modules. The same fab lines that could produce consumer DRAM are repurposed or constrained when ramping HBM output.
TrendForce, one of the most cited memory market research firms globally, tracks this dynamic in their ongoing DRAM market analysis and HBM demand forecasts. Their reporting confirms that standard DRAM contract prices have shown upward movement correlated with HBM capacity diversion. The DDR5 transition also added cost pressure to consumer memory independent of AI demand, meaning buyers are being hit from two directions at once.
Bloomberg's coverage of the Micron and Samsung race to meet AI memory demand highlights a critical point: new semiconductor fab capacity takes two to three years to come online from the moment investment is committed. Even if manufacturers announced a major expansion today, meaningful supply relief would not arrive before late 2026 or 2027 at the earliest.
The Knock-On Effect on Consumer Laptops and Desktop PCs
The supply squeeze on consumer DRAM feeds directly into the price of new laptops and desktops. Less available DRAM at the manufacturing level means OEMs pay more for the memory they install in devices. That cost is passed on to the end consumer.
There is also a demand-side pressure working alongside the supply squeeze. The AI PC category, led by Microsoft's Copilot Plus specification, is actively pushing the industry toward higher base RAM configurations in mainstream consumer devices.
Why Entry-Level and Mid-Range Machines Are Hit Hardest
Microsoft's Copilot Plus PC requirements, as confirmed by The Verge covering Microsoft Copilot Plus PC RAM requirements, mandate a minimum of 16GB of RAM and a capable Neural Processing Unit. This effectively retires 8GB as a viable entry-level configuration for AI-capable devices. Major OEMs including Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Asus have already launched devices to this standard.
For budget and mid-range buyers, this matters significantly. A laptop that would previously have shipped with 8GB now ships with 16GB to meet the new standard. More RAM per device means higher per-unit cost at a time when DRAM itself is more expensive to source. Entry-level and mid-range buyers absorb the full impact of both changes simultaneously.
Common mistakes buyers and sellers make right now:
- Assuming RAM prices will quickly correct the way they have in previous cycles. This cycle is structurally different.
- Comparing today's new laptop prices to prices from two years ago without accounting for both DRAM inflation and rand depreciation.
- Overlooking used machines with 16GB RAM as viable alternatives to new AI PCs for most everyday workloads.
- Waiting indefinitely for prices to drop before selling an existing machine. The used market may shift as new AI PCs become the norm.
- Ignoring the 15% VAT component when comparing ZAR prices to USD-denominated international benchmarks.
- Assuming that a laptop without an NPU has no resale value. For most work and gaming use cases, a fast CPU and sufficient RAM still deliver strong performance.
What This Means for the South African Buyer and Seller
South African consumers are navigating a more complicated version of the same global problem. The rand has remained under structural pressure against the US dollar, which means that even when global DRAM prices are flat, local ZAR prices can still rise. When global prices and the exchange rate move against the consumer simultaneously, the impact on ZAR-denominated retail prices can be significant.
Local tech publications like MyBroadband's laptop and PC hardware coverage track rand-denominated price movements at South African retailers including Evetech, Wootware, and Incredible Connection. These are useful reference points for monitoring whether local prices are tracking global trends or lagging behind.
Used and Refurbished PCs as a Hedge Against Rising New Hardware Costs
If new AI PC pricing is above your budget or hard to justify for your actual workload, used and refurbished hardware offers a practical alternative. A well-specced used laptop with 16GB of RAM and a recent-generation processor can handle most professional workloads without the AI PC premium attached to it.
For sellers, the current environment may be more favourable than you realise. Machines with higher RAM configurations (16GB and above), recent processors, and solid build quality may attract stronger interest from buyers who are priced out of new hardware. If you are sitting on a capable machine you no longer use, now is a reasonable time to consider listing it. You can sell your PC or laptop through Sell Your PC and get a straightforward valuation without the guesswork.
If you are new to buying or selling used tech:
- Start by checking current new laptop prices at local retailers to understand the market ceiling.
- Look for used machines with at least 16GB of RAM if you want the device to remain relevant for AI-adjacent workloads.
- Verify the battery health and physical condition before purchasing any used laptop.
- Avoid buying used machines without a clear return or warranty policy from the seller.
- Use established platforms with a track record rather than informal listings where verification is harder.
If you have bought or sold used tech before:
- Re-evaluate your pricing benchmarks. New laptop prices have shifted and your used price ceiling has likely shifted with them.
- RAM quantity is now a stronger value signal than it was two years ago. Machines with 16GB or more carry more weight in buyer decisions.
- Consider whether your current hardware meets or exceeds the Copilot Plus standard. If it does, it may have stronger appeal to buyers than you expect.
- Watch the ZAR/USD rate as a secondary indicator alongside global DRAM price indices when timing a sale or purchase.
- Corporate or workstation-grade machines with high RAM are particularly attractive to buyers priced out of new AI PCs.
How to Time Your Purchase or Sale in a Volatile Memory Market
Timing the memory market precisely is not realistic for most consumers. What is realistic is making a decision framework that accounts for your situation rather than waiting for an optimal moment that may not arrive.
Decision tree: Should you buy new, buy used, or sell now?
- How urgent is your need? If you need a device within the next one to two months, waiting for price relief is not a practical strategy. Move to step 2. If you can wait six months or more, monitor DRAM price indices and local retailer pricing before committing.
- What is your budget range? If new AI-spec laptops are significantly above your budget, the used market is your best option right now. Browse the Sell Your PC shop for current used and refurbished listings. If new hardware is within reach, compare the specifications carefully against what used alternatives offer.
- What is your actual use case? For gaming, creative work, and standard business productivity, a used machine with a strong CPU and 16GB RAM will serve you well without the AI PC premium. For on-device AI workloads or Copilot Plus features specifically, a new AI PC is the more appropriate choice.
- Are you considering selling? If you own a machine with 16GB RAM or more, a recent processor, and good physical condition, the current market may be more favourable for sellers than it was 18 months ago. Get a valuation before assuming what you will receive.
- Can you tolerate waiting? If the answer is yes and your budget is flexible, waiting for new fab capacity to ease DRAM supply is a valid long-term strategy. But analysts place meaningful relief at late 2026 at the earliest, based on current investment timelines.
What to Watch – Key Indicators That RAM Prices Are Shifting
You do not need to track every market report to stay informed. A small set of indicators will give you a reasonable read on where the memory market is heading.
- TrendForce quarterly DRAM price reports: Published regularly and freely available in summary form. Rising contract prices signal further consumer price pressure ahead.
- HBM allocation announcements from SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron: If any of the three manufacturers signal a shift toward more consumer DRAM production, it is a positive indicator for supply relief.
- ZAR/USD exchange rate: A weakening rand amplifies global price increases at the local retail level, regardless of what happens to DRAM supply globally.
- Microsoft Copilot Plus device adoption rates: As AI PC adoption grows, demand for higher-spec consumer DRAM increases from the demand side, adding upward pressure.
- Local retailer pricing at Evetech, Wootware, and Incredible Connection: Watching the ZAR price of a consistent mid-range laptop model over time is a practical proxy for tracking local price movements.
If you are uncertain about how these trends affect your specific situation, the team at Sell Your PC is available to help with valuations and practical guidance on buying or selling used hardware in South Africa.
Frequently asked questions
Why is AI causing a RAM shortage for everyday consumers?
AI accelerators like the Nvidia H100 use a specialised memory called HBM, which is produced at the same manufacturing facilities that make consumer DDR RAM. HBM requires far more wafer area per gigabyte than standard DRAM. As manufacturers prioritise the more profitable HBM for AI customers, less capacity is left for consumer memory modules, which tightens supply and pushes prices up.
Will RAM prices come down soon in South Africa?
Meaningful supply relief from new fab capacity is unlikely before late 2026 at the earliest, based on the two to three year build timelines for new semiconductor fabs. In South Africa, any global price improvement can also be offset by rand depreciation, so local ZAR prices may not fall even if global DRAM prices soften. Watch both the global DRAM index and the ZAR/USD rate together.
Is buying a used laptop with 16GB RAM a good idea right now?
For most everyday and professional workloads, yes. A well-specced used laptop with 16GB RAM and a recent processor can handle standard productivity, creative work, and even light AI-assisted tasks without the premium attached to a brand-new AI PC. Verify the condition, battery health, and seller reputation before buying. The Sell Your PC shop offers pre-owned machines with known specifications.
Is now a good time to sell my existing laptop or PC?
If your machine has 16GB of RAM or more, a recent processor, and is in good physical condition, the current market may be more favourable for sellers than it was 18 to 24 months ago. Buyers who are priced out of new AI PCs are actively looking at capable used alternatives. A valuation through a reputable local platform is the best way to find out what your machine is worth right now.
Do I need an AI PC (with an NPU) for most tasks?
For the majority of users, no. An NPU is primarily needed for on-device AI features specific to Microsoft's Copilot Plus platform, such as real-time translation, AI-enhanced image editing, and certain Windows AI features. Standard productivity, gaming, content creation, and business tasks do not require an NPU. A fast CPU, sufficient RAM, and a solid-state drive remain the most important specifications for most buyers.
Summary
- AI infrastructure demand for HBM is structurally tightening global DRAM supply, pushing consumer RAM and laptop prices upward.
- New fab capacity will not provide meaningful relief before late 2026. This is not a short-term cycle.
- South African buyers face compounded pressure from both global DRAM prices and rand depreciation against the US dollar.
- Used and refurbished hardware with 16GB RAM or more offers genuine value for buyers priced out of new AI PCs.
- Sellers of RAM-heavy, well-specced machines may find the current environment more favourable than previous years.
This is educational content, not financial advice.
